ORBITAL WARFARE WARGAMING

CURRENT ORBITAL WARFARE WARGAMING DEVELOPMENTS

Over 2020-24, there has been steady development in professional-level warfighter training in Orbital Warfare in the simulations space. A 2020 War on the Rocks commentary:

“From a technological standpoint, defense space strategists are facing challenges that are even more daunting than the radar and sonar inventions of the inter-war period. Advances in today’s satellite design, manufacturing, and launch are upending traditional assumptions about space operations by dramatically decreasing the costs of positioning large numbers of objects in space. And the prospect of space conflict — an event without historical precedent — looms large.” [Bilsborough, S. 2020 More Space Wargames, Please. War on the Rocks (17 November)]

From a wargaming design perspective, the need would be to identify and explore implications of Space Geography on space operations and tactics uncovering the, “less obvious features that may help mitigate defensive vulnerabilities or enable new offensive approaches” [Bilsborough, 2020].

In 2022, Slingshot Aerospace publicly announced a digital replica of the Space Environment and map for on-orbit objects and Space Weather in real-time for the U.S. Space Force [Albon, C. 2022 US Space Force Awards Contract For Simulation and War Gaming Environment. C4ISRNET (1 April)]. In December 2023, it was publicly announced that the U.S. Space Force had held its first-ever Red Skies exercise [Hadley, G. 2024 Red Skies: Space Force Launches New Orbital Warfare Exercise. Air and Space Forces Magazine (8 January)]. The exercise was a simulation, and was said to have, “sought to develop tactics and procedures to protect U.S. satellites while taking into account the cost of burning satellites’ limited fuel supplies” [Hadley, 2024]. In 2024, the U.S. Space Command announced a new Space Wargaming Lab called CAVE: Capability Assessment and Validation Environment [Shinn, M. 2024 Space Command Announces New Space Wargaming Lab. The Gazette (10 April)]. The CAVE lab is said to be focused on simulating conflict in Space, and plan for war in orbit using a simulations model.

MANOEUVRE TACTICS PROBLEM IN ORBITAL SPACE ENVIRONMENT

In conventional tactics theory, there are basic modes: attack, defend, avoid, or chase, and the question is how do these historically terrestrial concepts translate into the Orbital Space Environment? To put it another way – what are the tactical building blocks in Orbital Manoeuvre? Tactical components underpinning Orbital Manoeuvre Attack, Defend, Avoidance and Chase Tactics are determined by enduring fundamentals of the Space Environment which are radically different from terrestrial experience. The most significant fundamental is all activity is taking place in three dimensional Space:

“Space warfighting concepts and operations will be shaped by a wide range of factors, but few will outweigh the impact of three-dimensional space and time … warfighting in the Space Domain takes place across vast heights, widths, and depths rather than on a flat plane. However, unlike … [warfighting in the air and underseas] … three-dimensional domains, the most direct path between two points in orbit, a straight line, is rarely the most economical in terms of fuel. Trade-offs between energy efficiency and time to destination abound as a result.” [Bilsborough, 2020]

The time component is a critical factor, as satellites could potentially manoeuvre, “for days, if not weeks or months, beforehand to get into position to have meaningful operational effects.” [Reesman, R. Wilson, J.R. 2020 The Physics of Space War: How Orbital Dynamics Constrain Space-to-Space Engagements. The Aerospace Corporation (October)] Three-dimensional domains such as airspace, or underseas (where craft manoeuvre according to physical rules), occur in relation to a flat plane: above the Earth’s surface, or submerged landscapes. Earth topography ads a set of constraints. Warfighting in Orbital Space occurs around a rotating body, and the range between two satellites can be vast distances in two dynamics: distance away from Earth into Deep Space, and the line of sight distance along an orbital plane, where “viewing geometries (angles at which one satellite has line of sight to another)” [Bilsborough, 2020], could be interrupted by curvature of the Earth, or be on the opposite side of the planet altogether.

Orbital Manoeuvre Attack: Key Concepts

Orbital Manoeuvre Attack in a conventional sense means to move towards the opponent’s position. In the context of Orbital Manoeuvre a satellite in one orbit (following the rotation of the Earth) can attack an opponent satellite in another orbit (also following the Earth’s rotation), by moving towards it (which is either to raise or lower its orbit). Raising or lowering Orbital Manoeuvre is essentially to allow an opponent craft to match planes with its target, the object being to, “manoeuvre close enough to engage a target quickly.” [Reesman, 2020]

Not all orbits follow the Earth’s rotation (West to East on its axis), other forms of orbital attack using different directions can be considered. For instance, in the case of the accidental collision between Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251 (10 February 2009), the satellites collided at almost right angles to each other on crossing orbital paths. Kosmos 2251 orbit was inclined 74 degrees to the equator, and was roughly on an East-West path, while Iridium 33 in its Near-Polar Orbit was on an East-Northerly to South-Westerly path around the Earth.

► Graphic representing 10 February 2009 accidental collision between Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251. Globe by NASA Worldwind in the public domain (Rlandmann, 18 February 2014).

▲ Visualizing a simple Orbital Manoeuvre Attack model where an opponent satellite (RED) reduces its orbit to meet-up with a target satellite (BLUE); noting that craft in Space have to be on the same orbital plane to travel together. Commonly paired, or a trio of, satellites are in the exact same orbit, with one satellite a few seconds ahead of the other along the same path. For instance, spacecraft visiting the International Space Station can orbit near the station for several hours before completing a docking.

▲ More advanced Orbital Warfare Manoeuvre Tactics are looked at on this page.

CONJUNCTIONS: close approaches in Space, which could be Rendezvous Operations, in regards to:

“satellites that get too close to each other could also, intentionally or unintentionally, cause radio frequency interference that jams communications. If the approach is intentional, a threatening satellite could grab on to, physically destroy, electromagnetically interfere with, or collect intelligence for a future strike on a victim satellite.” [Dickey, R. Wilson, J. 2023 Why There Should Not Be A Norm For “Minimum Safe Distance” Between Satellites. War on the Rocks (11 December)]

RENDEZVOUS AND PROXIMITY OPERATIONS

‘Recent technological advances surrounding the subset comprising so-called Proximity Operations, and Rendezvous and Proximity Operations appear to have brought increased attention to the disruptive impact of Space-to-Space Engagements’ [Damale, A. 2020 Rendezvous Proximity Operations: Not Operating in Isolation. ELN (12 August); Egeli, S. 2021 Space-to-Space Warfare and Proximity Operations: The Impact on Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications and Strategic Stability. Journal For Peace and Nuclear Disarmament. Volume 4. Number 1]. Proximity Operations implies, “a series of orbital manoeuvres executed to place and maintain a spacecraft in the vicinity of another space object ... to accomplish mission objectives” [Pfrang, K. Weeden, B. 2020 U.S. Military and Intelligence Rendezvous and Proximity Operations in Space. Secure World Foundation (August); Egeli, 2021].

In regards to Rendezvous Operations, there are various Co-orbital Systems that are more correctly described as Proximity Operations [Ministry of Defence [United Kingdom]. 2022 Joint Doctrine Publication 0-40, UK Space Power. Ministry of Defence]. Rendezvous and Proximity Operations are distinct activities:

  • Rendezvous Operation: “involves attaching one satellite to another. This could pose a threat as the intercepting satellite could potentially be used to manipulate, damage or even destroy its target.” [Ministry of Defence, 2022]

  • Proximity Operations: “involve stationing one satellite close to another for a time. While this could be a direct threat, for example, if the intercepting satellite possessed a warhead or powerful jamming device, Proximity Operations can also be used to conduct a detailed assessment of the capabilities of a satellite to characterise it or to seek to intercept or manipulate signals as part of a Link Segment Attack. More simply, such a satellite may just be positioned to block line of sight to a target area or control signal source.” [Ministry of Defence, 2022]

An object in Orbital Space follows an elliptical orbital path. Satellite’s orbital velocity depends on its altitude above Earth. If nearer to Earth orbital velocity is faster (and when furthest from the central body the object is moving slower). Additionally, a space vehicle operating in Medium Earth Orbit can manoeuvre at significantly lower fuel costs than the same craft in Low Earth Orbit [Bilsborough, 2020].

Spacecraft-satellites have two states: either following an orbital path unpowered, or using engines: a manoeuvring rocket or thrusters, to change speed using thrust to increase or decrease velocity. Changing velocity will always move an object, remembering that ‘velocity is a vector.’ Velocity-vector has two quantities: magnitude and direction. To effect an object’s orbit depends on the direction of thrust, as well as the thrust force. For instance, thrusting against the direction of motion will lower the object’s orbit.

A fundamental technology restraint on Orbital Manoeuvre Attack, Defence, Avoidance and Chase Tactics is, “satellites deploy into their respective orbits with a fixed amount of fuel and no expectation of replenishment” [Bilsborough, 2020].